MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (GWW)—It remains to be seen which candidate will have a better day in New Hampshire on November 4th, but Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., may have a claim to October 15th, today, being in his column.

University of New Hampshire Professor Dante Scala, who taught me virtually everything I know (plus or minus about .01%) about political science research methods, reports today that voter turnout and demographic shifts in the Granite State are tending Democratic -- and have "significant implications for the November election."

Between 1998 and 2008, says the report by UNH's Scala, Ken Johnson, and Andy Smith, registrations into the Democratic party have grown by 30 percent, though the number of registered Republican voters did not increase -- and actually dropped by 10,000.

"Nearly a third of the potential voters in New Hampshire this November became eligible to vote in the past eight years," writes Johnson. "These potential new voters are more likely to identify with the Democratic Party than are established New Hampshire voters. . . . Together the migrants and those turning 18 in the past eight years represent 321,000 potential new voters or about one-third of the residents eligible to vote this fall."

Just hours before the final of three presidential debates begins at Hofstra University in New York, CNN has three nuggets of good news for Sen. Obama.

The largest state lead for Sen. Obama is in Virginia, where he leads Sen. McCain 53-43. CNN's Paul Steinhauser points out the the state went to President Bush by almost the same margin in 2004. The Illinois Democrat also holds a several-point lead in the battlegrounds of Colorado and Florida.

Georgia and Missouri, both of which went to President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, are both tight races, though led by Sen. McCain.

With this data and other polling information comes another nugget of good polling news for Sen. Obama: CNN's national Poll of Polls, itself a stew of several other polls, shows Sen. Obama at 50 percent, McCain at 42 percent. The other eight percent is undecided and there is no computable margin of error (basic definition, from research methods: the level of uncertainty).

Finally, CNN has used this polling and other data to shift several states on their electoral map -- and reports, "For the first time in the election cycle, CNN’s Electoral Map estimates that Democrat Barack Obama has moved over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the White House."

Among the states shifted in this latest analysis: Virginia to "lean Obama," North Dakota to "lean McCain" (downgraded from "safe McCain"), and New Jersey to "safe Obama." Electoral ratings typically are classified as "toss-up" (basically. . . a toss-up between the two candidates), "lean" (more likely to favour the particular candidate), and "safe" (most likely).

Real Clear Politics, Politico, National Journal's Hotline on Call, and more all put Sen. Obama ahead. On some projection charts, he even leads by a "safe" margin; he rises past the 270 magic number without relying on "lean" electoral votes.

Sen. Obama will be in New Hampshire tomorrow for a visit to Mack's Apples in Londonderry. Politicker New Hampshire's finest Brian Lawson reports that tickets for the event were all gone in under 24 hours. (His trip comes a day after Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska., held a rally in Dover.)